Crozet House Sales Defy Market Trends
Remarkably, the number of total sales in Crozet dropped by only three during the latest quarter when compared to the same period last year, to a total of 72 sales. But perhaps even more remarkable is that year-to-date sales in Crozet are up 3% from 2025. This is the head scratcher, as it flies in the face of current real estate headwinds of rising mortgage rates, increasing inventory, and fatigued/discouraged buyers. Add to that stunning dysfunction in D.C., stubborn inflation, the Iran war and resulting energy price fluctuations, and uncertainty around the midterm elections, and you would have most real estate pundits running for the hills. Yet here in Crozet real estate sales to date are up. Bully for us. The question is can this strength be maintained? That probably depends on rates. At this time last year, we were talking about 30-year mortgage rates being stuck in the 6-6.5% range, according to Mike Fratantoni of the Mortgage Bankers Association. But Fratantoni’s tune has changed. With rates averaging 7.4% this past week, the MBA is now predicting rates holding above 7% through 2027. This puts a crimp in what buyers can afford, and will almost certainly result in a lower number of transactions nationally at current or perhaps lower average prices. And this should affect Crozet as well.
Of the 72 total sales during the quarter in Crozet, half were for attached homes, and half for detached homes. Of this latter group, nine of the sales were for homes of $1.25M and up (these sales are excluded here for statistical purposes). This group included the home at 7098 Bucks Elbow, which sold for more than the list price and boasts stunning views and privacy. Of the remaining total, 17 homes were new construction. Only one of these was a detached home, built in Pleasant Green. Five of the sales were for homes on an acre or more. There was one land sale during the period, a 2-acre parcel with lovely views on Burchs Creek that sold for $55K over the asking price. There were zero distressed sales during the period.
The average price for a detached home in Crozet during the latest quarter was $658,000, a $20,000 drop from the same period last year. There was only the one aforementioned new construction detached home sale during the quarter, selling for $620,000 in Pleasant Green. The average price of the remaining 26 re-sale homes was $660,000, also down about $20,000 from last year. Only six of these resale transactions were for more than the list price. This represents 23% of sales, a percentage that is slowly dropping as buyers are becoming more selective/wary, and are being rewarded with growing inventory and more reasonable pricing. The number of days on market for these resale homes stayed relatively flat at 26 days, but this doesn’t reflect the fact that more sellers are pulling their homes from the market rather than reduce their price or have their properties continue to sit on the market. The rising mortgage rate is also contributing to sellers pulling properties rather than selling and taking on a new home at an increased rate.
There were 36 attached home sales during the quarter, down slightly from the 39 sales during Q3 2025. 16 of these sales were for new construction, with 8 being in Old Trail, 7 in Pleasant Green, and 1 in Glenbrook. The average price for these new townhome/villa properties was down $29K to $522,000. There were 20 resale homes during the quarter, selling at an average price of $514,000. This is the first time during a quarter that the average price for an attached resale home topped the half million dollar mark. This is discouraging, as this type of home typically represents one of the most affordable categories for home buyers.
With midterms approaching next week, it feels like Americans are collectively holding their breath to see what happens. Control of Congress seems up for grabs at this point, and each party has their plan for housing affordability. But regardless of who wins, inflation needs to be tamed before borrowing rates can meaningfully decline. If neither happens, 2027 could see price erosion and supply increases as the market tries to rebalance itself to these new norms. As Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker notes, “In 2027 we expect the headwind from affordability to increasingly dominate, weighing further on activity.” Goldman also reports that 95% of all mortgages are below current market rates, and 65% are 2% or more below current rates. If rates continue to rise, and these deltas increase, the real estate market could start experiencing some pain not felt since the Great Recession. Current advice is simple: if you need to sell don’t be greedy. And if you are a buyer, take your time. Good and getting better deals are out there.
Ed. Note: This is David Ferrall’s last quarterly real estate report for the Gazette. He has filed them faithfully for 15 years and the Gazette, like its readers, is sincerely grateful for his expertise and diligence.
